Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
