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Each time the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are launched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this smuggling operation has forced Lithuania's primary air hub into shutdown 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are adamant they are dealing with something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian government has announced an emergency situation.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers previously, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Of course it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to have an effect on neighbouring countries," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, each evening, military police deploy in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen after dark.

Teams set up temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any firm that can figure out how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Strategic Motives

The frontier line is now marked by a high security barrier, with security wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."