Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The average count of per-day murders per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government statistics. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had in these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central components of the President's security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was also concerning because it might mask periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.