🔗 Share this article

Amid the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.